Threats

I am often asked, “What do you think is going to happen?”, or “What are the threats to our society that have you so worried?”

So, I have put the following list together. It is important to note that in many cases, it is not the event that will create the chaos, but the resulting collapse of our just-in-time infrastructure. Some of these are man-made, some are natural in origin.

I think it is possible that you might see multiple waves of disasters – some triggering others.   For example, if the US economy collapses, I think a nuclear strike within our borders might result.    I could even see our government initiating a war of some kind – either as a distraction or as an event designed to pull us out of our economic woes.

I have listed these in order of my personal concern.

1. Unknown. We are in the midst of humanity’s third great transition. We have experienced massive destruction and devastation during the first two transitions – both man-made (as the existing power structures resist the emerging power) and natural (e.g. the Bubonic Plague during the Dark Ages). I see no reason to think we will avoid a similar fate. Who knows where it will come from? As Nassim Taleb reminds us in The Black Swan, highly improbably events always catch us by surprise. “We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and reshape our world.” Thus, the black swan theory.
2. Financial Collapse / Hyperinflation. Think Weimar Republic in Germany in the 1920′s, Argentina in the 70′s, and Zimbabwe today. Unfortunately, I think the chances of this happening are extremely high. When I think about preparing, I typically have this or the next item (deadly pandemic) in mind.
3. Deadly pandemic. Something similar in magnitude to the Spanish Flu of 1918 or the Bubonic Plague. Again, the chaos created from the infrastructure collapse will be worse than the pandemic itself.
4. EMP Blast. This is where someone detonates a weapon that fries all of our electronics and thus making them inoperable.
5. Nuclear War / Nuclear Winter. At some point somebody is going to detonate a bomb – Iran, Russia, India / Pakistan, North Korea, etc.
6. Space Debris / Kessler Syndrome There is no air in space; so particles fly through space at incredible rates of speed. Even the smallest particle can create enormous amounts of damage to whatever it hits. More importantly chain reactions are created as items collide – thus exponentially increasing the amount of space debris. There was a tremendous collision earlier this year. If the Kessler Syndrome happens, then it could render our satellites useless. We are now dependent on satellites for our voice and data communications. If those go down, our infrastructure goes down with it.
7. Global Warming. Is this real? I don’t know. If it is real, it will create enormous shifts in population and economic chaos. It will also lead to shortages of food and possible pandemics as once dormant threats become more active in the new climate.
8. Asteroid Collision. Will the earth be hit by an asteroid similar in scope to the one that put the dinosaurs out of business? I can say “yes” with almost 100% certainty. Will it happen in my or my children’s lifetime – probably not. The point is that we don’t know when it might happen; so, for any chance at long term survival we all need to be prepared at all times. We have near misses quite regularly – in 1989 an asteroid passed through a spot where the earth was only 6 hours before. It would have had the impact of a nuclear weapon wherever it struck.
9. Super-Volcano. Like the ELE type asteroid, this is another 100% certainty. It will happen at some point – why not always be prepared? The ash in the atmosphere could block a significant portion of the sun’s heat for many years.
10. Geomagnetic Reversal. Most scientists don’t think this will be an ELE (extinction level event) since it will mostly likely happen slowly over thousands of years. However, there are a few scientists who believe that the shift does not occur linearly but exponentially. This could leave the earth unprotected from solar radiation for a long period of time (decades? centuries?). See the Moon for an example of a body that is not protected from solar radiation.